Brewery participation in the 2025 GABS Hottest 100 is down sharply and the voting list is smaller than we’ve seen in years, yet every beer in last year’s Top 30 is eligible again. That combination points to a stable top end, but plenty of room for movement through the middle and lower ranks. Below are ten predictions, a few extra beers to watch, and what this year might mean for the poll’s long-term relevance.

In 2008, at the Local Taphouse in St Kilda, a fun discussion between beer nerds spawned a modest poll amongst regulars for their take on the best beers in the country. The poll mimicked the Triple J Hottest 100 and, as such, became an annual event. Due to the Taphouse’s connection with the Great Australasian Beer SpecTAPular, it became the GABS Hottest 100 Craft Beers (H100).

The list of 100 hottest Australian beers in the early polls was indeed diverse. And while some lament a reduction in variety as the survey has evolved, others see the change as somewhat in line with the craft beer market’s evolution. For better or worse, the H100 is a fascinating snapshot of the market, and to some extent, the Australian craft beer industry.

So come with me again, and let’s take a look at the 2025 H100 with a few observations, 10 specific predictions, a handful of summary predictions, and some closing thoughts of my own.

Contents

• State Of Play
• Predictions
  • Status Quo (Mountain Culture)
  • Original Pale Ale (Coopers)
  • Gipps St Pale Ale (Stomping Ground)
  • Jindong Juicy (Rocky Ridge)
  • Dionysus Oat Cream DIPA (Helios)
  • Horizon (Hiker Brewing Co)
  • PUP Hazy Pale Ale (Wolf of the Willows)
  • We Jammin’ (One Drop)
  • Hop Hog (Feral)
  • Mullet Pale Ale (Shout Brewing Co)
• A few more beers I’ll be watching
• Conclusion

State Of Play

Pre-2020, much of the craft beer industry was still in a growth phase. It’s reasonable to assume that it would have plateaued naturally at some point, but the pandemic had an abrupt impact and arguably brought that turning point forward.

In the years that followed, breweries of all sizes experienced challenges. Some were left little choice but to enter administration, often returning in a different state, whilst others closed down altogether. To survive, other breweries consolidated their operations, sometimes multiple times, in a variety of structures.

There’s a feeling that the worst may be over, though. In The Crafty Pint Podcast’s ‘The Year In Beer 2025 – National Trends’ episode, the hosts noted that while the industry still faces significant challenges, the post-COVID carnage may have come to an end. 

SpecTAPular Enterprises, which owns and operates the H100 and GABS festivals, has undergone its own evolution during this time, transitioning ownership from the founders in 2019 and then again last year.

These changes are reflected in the H100, with some breweries and beers disappearing. It also illustrates the market’s shift away from exotic, limited releases toward beers with broader appeal and price tags more palatable to consumers amid a cost-of-living crisis.

Homogenisation of the H100 has been a source of cynicism for as long as I can remember, but participation by breweries and consumers alike grew despite it. But for the 2024 H100, the reported number of votes declined from approximately 60,000 to 55,000, indicating a real decline in public interest in the poll. 

Industry participation in the form of brewery and beer entries has been trending down since 2023, but data for the upcoming H100 shows the most significant decline yet. I wrote a separate post looking at this in depth. Suffice to say, the number of breweries registering beers has dropped by 52%, and the number of beers registered to vote on has fallen by 38%. All beers ranked in the top 30 of the 2024 H100 have returned, so the ranks below are likely where significant movement will occur.

Anecdotally, hype around the H100 hasn’t been as prominent. Returning breweries, particularly those at the top of the rankings, are still mounting strong campaigns with targeted hero beers, but consumer engagement and online discussion are noticeably lower. Whether GABS’s ownership change and reported “pause” of some operations have extended further is anyone’s guess, but there is a noticeable reduction in their promotions and online engagement as well. 

This could be one of the most difficult-to-predict H100 polls yet. 

Predictions

So, with the scene set, let’s look at a handful of beers I’ll be watching for come Saturday, the 25th of January 2026.

Status Quo – Mountain Culture (stats)

Status Quo could be the most stable top beer in the history of the H100. There are no real candidates to dethrone it and the Mountain Culture brand has gone from strength to strength at a time when most other breweries are struggling.

With the acquisition of Fox Friday’s venues in Melbourne and Hobart, Mountain Culture’s presence across the country exceeds that of any independent Australian brewery. The brewery continues to captivate the craft beer hype-chaser with its hop-forward limited releases and collaborations with superstar breweries like Garage Project, while also appealing to a broader audience with nationally distributed core beers that flank Status Quo. 

No other brewery in the top ten straddles niche and approachable so well. Breweries like Range and One Drop, which also made their mark with limited releases, don’t have the same reach as Status Quo with Disco or We Jammin’. Bentspoke, Coopers and Gage Roads have strong hero beers in Crankshaft, Original Pale Ale and Single Fin, but they’ve got little with which to court those chasing exotic beers and convert brand loyalty into votes along brewery lines.

Make no mistake, Mountain Culture can make GABS history with four number one placings in a row. The only other beer to have four podium finishes is S&W Pacific Ale, but those were not consecutive. 

Mountain Culture is likely to dominate the poll more with upward movement from Status Quo’s stablemates. Be Kind Rewind and Cult IPA may have conceded ground in 2024, but the reduced competition from other breweries in the 2025 poll should turn this around. Keep an eye out for Juice Trip, too.

Prediction: 

Status Quo #1

Cult IPA between 20-10

Be Kind Rewind between 40 and 50

Majestic Haze between 60 and 50

Juice Trip between 50 and 30

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Original Pale Ale – Coopers (stats)

Original Pale Ale broke into the top ten in 2022 for the first time since 2008. In 2023, it climbed again, before causing quite a stir by taking the number two spot in the last poll.

Whilst I’m reluctant to say Coopers were ahead of their time, in a way, they were “craft” before craft was cool. But the brewery carries an odd stigma outside its home state that can hold it back. Despite genuinely being the largest independent brewery in the country, a large portion of modern craft beer drinkers don’t really see Coopers as “craft”. It’s the kind of beer you grew up around rather than discovered through the wave of new independents, giving it a mainstream-adjacent vibe.

In a culture where our consumer choices speak to our identity, the stigma associated with a brand like Coopers matters. Plenty of people love drinking Coopers, but not everyone wants to use one of their five votes to represent it.

Still, being the third-largest brewery in the country gives Coopers a distinct advantage over other independents. If they can continue to mobilise their base as they have been, Original Pale Ale is probably the biggest threat to Status Quo.

What may hold it back is vote-splitting. Coopers have nine stablemates competing for attention. In the 2024 Top 20, only a couple of other breweries are in that same bracket (Capital 10, Philter 15). Three Coopers beers polled in the 2024 H100, which shows both the strength of their base and the potential for votes to be spread around.

For Original Pale Ale to retain its place, let alone move up, the campaign message needs to stay ruthlessly focused on that one beer.

Prediction: 2nd or 3rd.

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Gipps St Pale Ale – Stomping Ground (stats)

Gipps St Pale Ale is something of a stalwart. It’s a steady, widely available pale that fell to its lowest point in the 2024 H100. That alone makes it an obvious candidate to improve in 2025.

With reduced competition, the poll is likely to reward familiarity and reach even more than usual. Stomping Ground have that in spades with a beer that’s consistently available and consistently drinkable.

Despite having multiple beers available to vote on each year, Stomping Ground’s effectiveness at centring its campaign on Gipps St Pale Ale has made it the only beer to ever feature in the H100.

Stomping Ground have also incorporated a provenance angle. “Vote for Melbourne” attempts to leverage identity by turning the beer into a flag. With the H100 often being a poll of identity as much as flavour, Gipps St may capture votes from loyal Victorians.

But Gipps St Pale Ale won’t have an easy run. Victoria doesn’t tend to dominate the pointy end of this poll. Looking at the last five results (2020–2024), Victorian beers accounted for just 7 of the 100 Top 20 slots, with typically only one or two beers each year. That could be vote-splitting in Australia’s most brewery-dense state, but it may also reflect a degree of Victorian fatigue with the H100.

And the Victorian vote isn’t just split internally. Mountain Culture and Rocky Ridge are only the latest interstate breweries to expand into Victoria. As well as diluting attention, they compete directly for the local vote Stomping Ground is trying to activate.

While I don’t think Gipps St Pale Ale will steamroll its way into the top ten, it should bounce back to a position more reflective of its reputation as an enduring mainstay. In a year where so many variables look muted, a well-executed, single-beer campaign for a genuinely solid, widely available pale — sitting at its lowest point in the poll in seven years — might be one of the more rational bets you can make.

Prediction: Somewhere between 30 and 50.

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Jindong Juicy – Rocky Ridge (stats)

Jindong Juicy was a hunch of mine last year. Quality and brand momentum, coupled with a 56-place leap from 2022 to 2023, prompted me to predict a place between 15 and 10. It fell short by only one place.

Rocky Ridge is one of a small number of medium-to-large independents that have continued to expand despite the harsh market. Their expansion into Melbourne has lifted their profile in the country’s most craft-saturated city, and having a venue presence in their home state capital, Perth, also strengthens the local base they can mobilise.

The main reason I’m bullish is that Rocky Ridge appears to be playing the game more intelligently this year. In previous years, they’ve flooded the voting list, with 31 beers entered in the 2024 poll and a whopping 83 in the 2022 H100. This time around, they’re registered a restrained and deliberate set of five. It clears the path the brewery has laid on social media, making Jindong Juicy Rocky Ridge its clear hero beer. 

Prediction: I’m tipping Jindong Juicy for a low-top-ten finish. 10, 9 or 8.

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Dionysus Oat Cream DIPA – Helios (stats)

Dionysus is my nod to the kind of beer that used to loom larger in the H100. An indulgent, hop-forward beer, it feels almost out of place in a poll that has increasingly shifted toward broadly appealing core beers. Dionysus stands out more than it might have ten, or even five, years ago.

It also has momentum in its favour. From debuting at 85 to rising to 41 last year, Dionysus has already demonstrated it can convert attention into votes. Helios also started campaigning early, and in a quieter year, early cut-through can be disproportionately valuable as it establishes the beer in voters’ minds before the noise builds.

The obvious ceiling is style. An oat cream double IPA is never going to have the mass appeal of a pale ale. But the H100, being five votes rather than one, might lead voters who keep a slot for a hedonism pick to signal their taste as much as their habits.

With some of the usual challengers missing, Dionysus is well placed to keep climbing.

Prediction: Somewhere between 30 and 45.

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Horizon – Hiker Brewing Co (stats)

A stone’s throw from Helios is Hiker Brewing, one of the more interesting recent success stories in the H100. Cloudscapes’ surprise result in 2023 showed they could convert attention into votes, and Horizon built on that in 2024 by being a more approachable, more broadly fashionable beer. A hazy pale is about as current as the H100 gets.

But I have a hesitation this year that isn’t really about the beer itself. It’s about cut-through. Hiker’s profile was boosted by its association with Adam Schell and the ecosystem around his podcasts (Pour It Out and others), as well as his time working at the brewery. That kind of visibility is hard to quantify, but it’s real. If it fades, it can take a few votes with it.

In a normal year, I’d be more confident calling a slide. But with fewer contenders, fewer breweries, and a quieter contest overall, beers might not fall as far as expected. 

I don’t wish to take away from Hiker’s achievement of getting Horizon among larger breweries with bigger marketing budgets. I genuinely hope the fanbase is sticky enough to hold it in the same band. But my gut says a drift is coming.

Prediction: Somewhere between 40 and 60.

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PUP Hazy Pale Ale – Wolf of the Willows (stats)

PUP is the definition of a quiet improver. It’s been steadily climbing from the Next Beers list into the main 100, then up again. The trajectory suggests something more durable than hype: repeat votes.

PUP is one of those beers that manages to be modern without being a clone. In a year where the ballot is smaller and familiar, drinkable beers may benefit, PUP feels well-positioned to keep nudging upward.

But the hazy pale ale is a double-edged sword. The style has, without a doubt, replaced the American-style pale ale as the default pale for many breweries, but it’s a crowded space in the H100.

Like Stomping Ground, Wolf Of The Willows also has the challenge of mustering support within Victoria.

Despite appearing alongside stablemates in the voting, PUP is the sole focus of the brewery’s H100 campaign. I can’t see its upward momentum stopping just yet.

Prediction: Somewhere between 40 and 60.

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We Jammin’ – One Drop (stats)

We Jammin’ was one of the defining stories of last year’s poll. Going from 40 to 10 isn’t a gentle rise — it’s a leap into the part of the list where name recognition starts to feed itself. Once a beer becomes known to casual voters, it’s easier to vote for again, especially when it’s memorable and distinct.

One Drop is an interesting parallel to Mountain Culture in that sense. Both built reputations on limited releases and boundary-pushing beers, but have found H100 success through more repeatable, widely recognised flagships. For One Drop, We Jammin’ has become that flagship.

And in a year where vote-splitting is clearly a theme, One Drop has the cleanest possible setup by registering only one beer. For a brewery that must top the list for most limited releases in a year, surely this indicates deliberate strategy. Removing any “which One Drop should I vote for?” friction.

The constraint for We Jammin’ is style. Smoothie-sour-adjacent beers can be polarising, which can cap a beer’s ceiling, even among passionate fans. But if you’re already in the top 10, the more realistic question is whether you hold rather than whether you disappear.

Prediction: Hold in the top 10, with a chance to nudge one position.

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Hop Hog – Feral (stats)

Hop Hog is one of the best narrative beers in the field because it’s already lived multiple lives in the H100. From 2009 through to 2016, it was a fixture at the top end of the poll, and from 2012 to 2014, it did something only no other beer has done until the 2024 H100, with a three‑peat at number one. The current crop of American-style IPAs owes much to Hop Hog for its role in proliferating the style in Australia, showing many of us what fresh IPA actually tastes like.

After Feral’s acquisition by Coca‑Cola Amatil, it dropped like a stone down the H100 rankings. At the time, Hop Hog was distributed nationally through major bottle shop chains. If anything, the brand should have been set up to remain a perennial performer. Instead, it became a case study in how large corporations can misunderstand small brands and how craft labels aren’t just a product to be scaled and managed. They’re an identity marker. The moment that identity is questioned, votes evaporate.

To be clear, the H100 isn’t a referendum on ownership structures. Later polls have shown that most voters won’t be doing corporate due diligence before filling in their five beers. But the effect on a craft brand’s credibility is real, and Hop Hog’s collapse shows how quickly a once-dominant beer can become culturally uncool, regardless of whether it still tastes like Hop Hog.

What makes the current poll interesting is that Feral is independent again. There’s clearly intent behind rebuilding the brand and the new custodianship feels imbued with the same spirit and passion as its founders.

The work to return Hop Hog to its heyday would be substantial. But it doesn’t deserve to be languishing where it has been. Last year’s jump was a meaningful signal. Less competition may reward familiarity and nostalgia more than usual. Another step forward feels plausible.

Prediction: Somewhere between 60 and 80.

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Mullet Pale Ale – Shout Brewing Co (stats)

Mullet Pale Ale is my outsider pick, but it’s not a blind punt. It already polled strongly last year, it has shown upward movement from 153 to 66 to 46, and it sits in one of the most H100-friendly lanes as a broadly appealing pale ale with a name people remember.

Local dynamics and clear messaging can matter more than usual for a brewery of Shout’s size. I’ve heard an interesting regional angle: a nearby brewery that sat this year out for its own reasons is diverting attention to give Shout a clearer run. It’s an admirable gesture and a testament to the craft beer community that the H100 doesn’t often highlight.

Shout does have other beers in the running that could dilute votes. But another rise feels more likely than not.

Prediction: Somewhere between 30 and 40.

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A few more beers I’ll be watching

Crankshaft (BentSpoke) remains a H100 constant. In a quieter year with fewer breweries competing for attention, I’d expect it to be as safe as ever near the pointy end.

Balter XPA has been outside the top three once in the nine years it’s featured in the poll and is still one of the most recognised “default” craft beers in the country. Even if it doesn’t climb, it’s hard to see it falling out of contention given its reach and familiarity.

Single Fin (Gage Roads) feels similarly resilient. It’s a beer that benefits from being everywhere, and the poll has always rewarded beers people regularly see on tap and in bottle shops.

Disco (Range) is another indicator of whether the hazy pale lane continues to consolidate at the top. If Range has cut through this year, Disco is the one that will show it.

Stone & Wood Pacific Ale has been a mainstay in the H100 since the beginning and is always worth watching. It’s Lion’s number one distributed tap beer.

4 Pines Japanese Lager was probably the most surprising entry to the top ten in the 2024 H100, rising 64 places. Indeed, the Japanese lager style itself has been more prominent, which begs the question: Why did Heads of Noosa opt not to participate in the latest poll?

Juicy Banger (Blackman’s) and West Coast IPA (Hawkers) are two very different beers that have both been on upward trajectories. Blackman’s passionate campaigning, reminiscent of Your Mates, has spurred their beers’ gradual climb 100 places since 2019 to 27th position in the previous poll. Hawkers may have initially resisted anything beyond token promotion, hovering between 95 and 98 for three years, but deliberate campaigning since the 2023 H100 has pushed it to the fringe of the top 20.

And finally, keep an eye on KRUSH! vs Cerveza (KAIJU!) and other similar pairings. When breweries have multiple well-known options on the ballot, the internal split can be as important as any external competition.

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Where does the H100 go next?

If the H100 is a snapshot of the craft beer market, this year’s snapshot looks sharper-edged than most. The voting list is smaller, hype feels muted, and a meaningful number of breweries have chosen not to participate at all. At the same time, the very top of the list looks structurally stable, with last year’s Top 30 all eligible again. The combination of stability at the top and volatility below is why this is one of the more difficult H100 polls to predict in years.

It also intersects with a longstanding criticism of the poll. Every year, there’s some version of the same argument: that it’s not a list of the best beers, that it’s not even a pure measure of the country’s most popular beers, and that the results can look like a reflection of whichever breweries have the most considerable reach, the slickest campaigns, or the most significant marketing budgets. The H100 has always sat somewhere between those interpretations because it’s a popularity poll and popularity is shaped by availability, brand, and message as much as flavour.

If voter participation is down again this year, it will validate those criticisms for many people, fairly or not. It also raises the bigger question of what happens next?

The poll’s future isn’t just about whether breweries keep entering beers. It’s about whether consumers continue to show up and vote. Public participation is the critical factor that keeps the H100 relevant and also what makes it commercially viable. For the owners of GABS and the H100, the poll ultimately needs to be profitable — something that can be packaged as an event, supported by sponsorship, and amplified beyond the core craft bubble. Sponsorship and participation are indelibly linked. Fewer voters means less sponsor value, and less sponsor value means less ability to promote the poll and keep it in the public eye.

This isn’t necessarily the death knell for the H100. If the new owners of the poll are indeed regrouping, fresh ideas may be on the horizon. The long-term health of the H100 depends on whether it can keep consumers engaged and convince breweries that participating is still worth the effort. Perhaps some changes to the H100 are what’s needed.

I guess we’ll see on Saturday. Either way, I’ll be back with a post-results analysis, updated charts, and the inevitable list of calls I got wrong.

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