Prep for my annual GABS Hottest 100 predictions involves a lot of analysis. Every year, I take a snapshot of the voting list, turn it into a dataset, and compare it to prior years and prior results. It’s the best way I know to understand what’s changed before we start arguing about who’s up or down.

Typically, I address the raw numbers briefly in the opening paragraphs of my main predictions post. But this year, one dimension invites so much analysis that a post of its own seems warranted.

Brewery participation appears to be down in a big way. The reasons will be varied, but what might the impact be?

The 2025 ballot is materially smaller

The number of breweries and beers registered for voting in the 2025 H100 is drastically lower than last year.

Only 48% of last year’s breweries have returned to contest the H100. Among the 155 breweries that were present last year but absent this year, some are unsurprising. Operations like Fox Friday and Dainton haven’t returned for obvious reasons. But there are also some notable omissions. Ballistic, Otherside, Brick Lane, Heads of Noosa, Little Bang, Revel, Fixation, Moon Dog, and even James Squires have not entered beers for the 2025 H100. Performance varies by brewery, but all have polled beers in the H100 in years past.

Fewer beers per brewery

Another trend that has continued is breweries registering fewer beers for voting.

This could be practical or due to changes in the registration mechanics. But the most interesting explanation is a strategy of entering fewer beers to reduce vote-splitting. Keeping support concentrated along “hero beer” lines limits dilution across a portfolio.

This seems consistent with the behaviour of some breweries (for example, Rocky Ridge and Phat Brew Club) who appear to have trimmed their entries considerably compared to previous years.

Whatever the cause, the contest is more concentrated as a result. Fewer breweries and beers make reach, recall, and availability even more critical.

The Top 30 is stable

The counterweight to the “shrinkage” story is that every beer in the 2024 Top 30 was registered for voting for the 2025 H100.

So while the voting list is smaller, the top end of the poll hasn’t been structurally disrupted. The top 30 order won’t be guaranteed, but the leading contenders are still eligible, still available, and still familiar.

Where things really change is below that.

To understand how much “space” might have opened up, I compared the 2024 Top 100 list against the final 2025 registered breweries/beers list. The key finding is that every “missing” beer from the 2024 Top 100 is missing for the same reason: the brewery itself is not on the 2025 ballot.

These breweries placed at least one beer in the 2024 Top 100, but have no beers registered for the 2025 poll.

That’s 12 breweries that were represented in the 2024 Top 100 but are not registered in 2025. Because Hawke’s accounts for two beers, those absences effectively remove 13% beers from last year’s Top 100, even though the Top 30 remains intact.

This is a different kind of “missing” from a limited release disappearing. When a brewery disappears entirely, it creates a more genuine vacuum, with votes more likely to disperse to other breweries rather than staying within the same brand family.

In the 2024 Top 100, every absence is a brewery-level absence, not a beer rotated out by a brewery that is still registered.

Limited releases are the classic example of beer-level absence, and you tend to see that kind of churn once you look beyond the Top 100. For instance, Mountain Culture is very much present on the 2025 ballot, but some of their 2024 #101–200 beers were limited releases and aren’t registered this year.

This distinction matters because it changes the likely vote flow. If a brewery is missing, votes can scatter across the field. When a beer from a returning brewery is missing, votes are likely to consolidate to the brewery’s remaining “hero” beers.

What this might mean on Saturday

The 2025 H100 will be interesting.

There’s always room for surprises, but the return of the entire 2024 Top 30, many of which have been mainstays for years, reduces the likelihood of a dramatic shake-up at the very top.

Fresh entries and significant movements feel more likely in the mid-to-lower end of the poll, where gaps left by absent breweries (and absent beers) can be filled by entrants benefiting from redistributed votes. Breweries trying to consolidate support by entering fewer beers stand to benefit, as will those running a clear “vote for this one beer” campaign.

This quieter contest also favours beers that are easy to find and easy to remember. As always, great beer is necessary, but
great beer that people actually see everywhere is what wins votes.

The overall trend of dwindling participation seems to reflect fatigue, as well as the apathy toward the poll observed elsewhere among a growing number of breweries. For years now, it’s been viewed by smaller breweries as impenetrable despite some upsets here and there. Indeed, breweries with the resources and reach to mount strong campaigns have a significant advantage.

Whether Spectapular Enterprises, under its changed ownership structure, continues the H100 into the future will be interesting to watch.

I guess we’ll see on Saturday. In the meantime, keep an eye out for my main predictions post. I’m aiming to publish it by Friday.