These are the hits and misses of my GABS Hottest 100 Craft Beers of 2023 predictions. Check out the recap for a 46% accuracy score. See which ones I called correctly and which I missed by a long shot.

Another GABS Hottest 100 Craft Bees poll is behind us, and once again, I’m not sure if I’ve distinguished or embarrassed myself with my prognostications. Either way, it’s how you play the game that matters.

I’ve set a loose, unscientific scoring method: one point for accurately guessing the position within the range I provided and another for accurately predicting the beers’ rise or fall.

Dead Wrong

Cerveza’s let me down. Apparently, they’re not about to take off—yet. Modus Cerveza (67, -37) fell considerably, and Balter Cerveza (45) didn’t storm its way into the top ten. In hindsight, this was one of my more optimistic predictions. Lagers are improving their overall showing in the poll, but not enough to warrant the predictions I made for these two.

In the top 20, Bentspoke Crankshaft(3) held its ground rather than decline. Your Mates Larry(4, +1) and Gage Roads Single Fin(6, +5) improved their positions.

Mountain Culture Cult IPA (22, -7), which I considered a shoo-in for significant upward improvement, slid seven places.

Further down the list, Hop Nation J-Juice(55, +13), Kaiju Krush(33, +14) and Moon Dog Old Mate (64, +1) improved despite my pessimism.

Aunty Jack’s lager didn’t appear, but I’ll watch for improvement in the ‘Next’ list when it’s published.

Not bad

Hawkers West Coast IPA(37, +57), Blackman’s Juicy Banger (30, +36), Range Disco (16, +37) and Beechworth Pale (5, +4) all improved their position as I thought they would, but they exceeded my expectations.

Akasha Super Chill(54, +5) improved, too, but not in the 10 to 20 places I predicted.

Better Beer(27, -21 ) fell far more than I expected. But its creator confirmed that there was no active campaigning. I understand the feeling was it was undesirable to piss off the craft beer clique with its continued presence, something worth reflecting on, if I may say so.

Ballistic Hawaiian Haze was nowhere to be seen. I noted this was possible, but I’ll be honest and hold myself to my prediction for it to appear between 100 and 80.

I am singling out my underdog prediction for Moffat Beach Passenger Pale (25). I’m so happy to be wrong about what position it would achieve. Even my tip for last year, Moff’s Summer Ale(95), was a welcome sight. Well deserved, and a middle finger to poll naysayers who think quality, brewery size and community are insignificant next to high-budget marketing in the H100.

Winning

It’s difficult to expect too much credit, as many were expecting it, but I did predict Mountain Culture Status Quo(1) would hold the top position. I’m no closer to an answer as to whether it increased its winning margin, though.

Pirate Life South Coast Pale(10 +3) improved its position, as I expected. I acknowledge I didn’t specify a range, but I’m taking full points for this one, given the circumstances.

Coopers Pale (7 +1) and Little Creatures Pale(13 +9) improved their positions as predicted.

Young Henrys Newtowner(9 -2) dropped but stayed between five and ten, as I said it would. Black Hops GOAT(12 -2) also slid outside the top ten as expected.

Despite Blood Orange NERIPA ironically improving, Daniton Beer Equalizer dropped out altogether, as foreseen.

My second favourite prediction, next to Passenger Pale Ale, is Helios Dionysis (85), which I accurately projected would show up between 100 and 80.

Tally

I’ve recapped 26 beers. Awarding one point for accuracy and one for direction, I scored 24 out of a possible 52 points. That’s 46% accuracy. Is this good or bad for the H100? You tell me.

I haven’t measured my success in the past. Perhaps I need to go back and check. Or maybe you could? I think I’ve had enough number-crunching for a while.

At least until the ‘Next’, ‘Indie’ and ‘New Beers’ lists come out…

Scores

• Balter Cerveza: 0
• Modus Cerveza: 0
• Crankshaft: 0
• Status Quo: 3
• Cult IPA: 0
• Beechy Pale: 1
• Better Beer: 1
• Hawaiian Haze: 1
• Krush: 0
• Equalizer: 3
• GOAT: 3
• Passenger Pale: 1
• Larry: 0
• Disco: 1
• Coopers Pale: 3
• Aunty Jacks: 0
• Juicy Banger: 1
• Super Chill: 1
• Single Fin: 0
• Dyonisis: 3
• Newtowner: 3
• Little Creatures: Pale Ale 3
• Old Mate: 0
• J Juice: 0
• Hawkers WC: 1
• South Coast Pale: 3

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